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Energy planning: Difference between revisions
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*Very effective computational models are available for predicting the behaviour of an electricity system. This modelling is used to ensure that that the system will meet standards for reliability and resilience with respect to: security of generation supply, system inertia, network fault recovery, synchronous generation, reactive power, black start recovery, etc.(see article on [[Reliability and resilience of the electricity system with high levels of renewables|reliability and resilience]]). The models are key tools that underpin a system design and investment planning processes. | *Very effective computational models are available for predicting the behaviour of an electricity system. This modelling is used to ensure that that the system will meet standards for reliability and resilience with respect to: security of generation supply, system inertia, network fault recovery, synchronous generation, reactive power, black start recovery, etc.(see article on [[Reliability and resilience of the electricity system with high levels of renewables|reliability and resilience]]). The models are key tools that underpin a system design and investment planning processes. | ||
*The system should be classified as safety critical (see 'Duty of care' below) because of the level of harm that would result from a major blackout. | *The system should be classified as safety critical (see '[[Energy planning#Duty of care|Duty of care]]' below) because of the level of harm that would result from a major blackout. | ||
====Potential for success in system planning==== | ====Potential for success in system planning==== | ||
A common reaction to a proposal that system planning should be used, is that it would not work - that government bodies cannot be relied on to produce good outcomes. Such a view does not stand up to analysis | A common reaction to a proposal that system planning should be used, is that it would not work - that government bodies cannot be relied on to produce good outcomes. Such a view does not stand up to analysis because ystem planning: | ||
* is widely used in society. It is the default setting in professional engineering, in science, in medicine, in business, etc. | * is widely used in society. It is the default setting in professional engineering, in science, in medicine, in business, etc. | ||
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The GB electricity system should be designated as safety critical. The [[Reliability and resilience of the electricity system with high levels of renewables|risk of major blackouts]] is increasing and such events cause major societal and economic harm. Although there are codes for the performance of the electricity system, they are not being used to the limits of their potential to justify decisions about changes to the generation mix. Far from having a second independent comprehensive check for safety, changes to the electricity system are being made without ensuring that all the risks are addressed. | The GB electricity system should be designated as safety critical. The [[Reliability and resilience of the electricity system with high levels of renewables|risk of major blackouts]] is increasing and such events cause major societal and economic harm. Although there are codes for the performance of the electricity system, they are not being used to the limits of their potential to justify decisions about changes to the generation mix. Far from having a second independent comprehensive check for safety, changes to the electricity system are being made without ensuring that all the risks are addressed. | ||
Those responsible for making changes to the electricity system also have a duty of care to ensure that their actions do not result in | Those responsible for making changes to the electricity system also have a duty of care to ensure that their actions do not result in harm to others. It should be a requirement of the Future System Operator that proposals for changes to the electricity system are assessed using advanced risk control methods. | ||
The cost of changes to the electricity system should also be classed as safety critical: Increases in electricity prices are resulting in severe social harm. But the costs of changes to the system are not being reliably estimated. | The cost of changes to the electricity system should also be classed as safety critical: Increases in electricity prices are resulting in severe social harm. But the costs of changes to the system are not being reliably estimated. | ||
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====System planning for public works==== | ====System planning for public works==== | ||
In October 2021, the Institution of Engineers in Scotland inducted James Newlands to the Scottish Engineering Hall of Fame. In 1847 Newlands took up the appointment of Borough Engineer of Liverpool. In a 2014 paper about James Newlands, Sally Sheard wrote: | In October 2021, the Institution of Engineers in Scotland inducted [https://engineeringhalloffame.org/profile/james-newlands James Newlands] to the [https://engineeringhalloffame.org/ Scottish Engineering Hall of Fame]. In 1847 Newlands took up the appointment of Borough Engineer of Liverpool. In a 2014 paper about James Newlands, Sally Sheard wrote: | ||
"By the 1830s the deterioration in urban health in many towns and cities was provoking national debate, within a predominant culture of laissez-faire – the Englishman’s home is his castle principle. The challenges Newlands successfully addressed in mid-nineteenth century Liverpool –integrated urban design, adequate funding, multi-disciplinary team working – remain critical to urban health now." | |||
Newlands designed and built a sewer system for Liverpool that, after 20 years, resulted in a doubling of the life expectancy of the people of Liverpool who had lived in highly unsanitary conditions. His appointment as Borough Engineer was a pivotal event in the improvement in public health in the UK. Liverpool Town Council recognised that that something radical had to be done about the condition of the town sewers. Despite opposition from supporters of the 'culture of laissez faire', the sewer system was planned as an integrated entity recognising that the dominant public good issues could not be addressed by private enterprise. | Newlands designed and built a sewer system for Liverpool that, after 20 years, resulted in a doubling of the life expectancy of the people of Liverpool who had lived in highly unsanitary conditions. His appointment as Borough Engineer was a pivotal event in the improvement in public health in the UK. Liverpool Town Council recognised that that something radical had to be done about the condition of the town sewers. Despite opposition from supporters of the 'culture of laissez faire', the sewer system was planned as an integrated entity recognising that the dominant public good issues could not be addressed by private enterprise. | ||
Following Liverpool's lead, the City of London created a Metropolitan Commission of Sewers that led to a new and highly effective sewer system. Other cities followed. The need for municipal planning for sewage and water supply became the norm - to the great advantage of the nation | Following Liverpool's lead, the City of London created a Metropolitan Commission of Sewers that led to a new and highly effective sewer system. Other cities followed. The need for municipal planning for sewage and water supply became the norm - to the great advantage of the nation. | ||
==== System planning for the electricity system ==== | ==== System planning for the electricity system ==== | ||
Despite opposition from members of parliament who believed that competition was essential, the 1926 Electricity Act enabled 'Electricity Commissioners' to use system planning to create the National Grid, that greatly improved reliability and, between 1926 and 1960, significantly reduced the price of electricity in real terms - see [https://engineers.scot/office/resources/publications/engforenergy.pdf Engineeering for Energy], page 9 | Just as the introduction of system planning by James Newlands was a pivotial event in the improvment of public health, a similar pivotal event occurred in 1926 for GB electricity supply Despite opposition from members of parliament who believed that competition was essential, the 1926 Electricity Act enabled 'Electricity Commissioners' to use system planning to create the National Grid, that greatly improved reliability and, between 1926 and 1960, significantly reduced the price of electricity in real terms - see [https://engineers.scot/office/resources/publications/engforenergy.pdf Engineeering for Energy], page 9. | ||
Pre-1990, the UK Electricity Boards (CEGB, SSEB and NSHEB) provided a reliable supply and worked successfully to keep costs down. They did forward planning that identified the optimum location and type of generation plant in relation to a range of issues such as system cost, fuel source proximity, operational flexibility, fuel supply security etc. They were not-for-profit organisations. | |||
''The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IES.'' | ''The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IES.'' | ||